Rethinking who defines value in a market built far from where coffee begins.
My Price Is Not Your Price
It’s right after harvest season, and you make your way to your favorite coffee farmer. Except this time, something feels different.
You tell yourself you want to pay fairly. And there’s comfort in that thought, because no matter what you’re willing to pay, you already know your numbers. Your cost of goods. What it takes to run your roaster or your cafe. Because in the end, you are not just buying coffee. You are buying something you can transform. Roast it. Brand it. Sell it at a multiple of what you paid. The value is not fixed at purchase. It expands in your hands. So the question is not simply whether the system is fair. It is who holds the power to define value within it.
Put It Down, Flip It, Reverse It
What if you went to origin and did not know the price? What if you arrived expecting one number, only to find the coffee costs significantly more, not because it is inflated, but because for the first time it is being priced at the source? What if the farmer told you what it actually costs to produce, and you had to decide in that moment whether to accept it?
Would you still buy? Or would the system begin to resist that shift?
Why the Farmer Doesn’t Set the Price
Futures markets were originally built to help producers. They allowed farmers and buyers to lock in prices and reduce the panic-driven cycles that plagued agricultural trade. Over time, those markets evolved. Participants with greater access to capital entered not just to hedge risk but to trade it. The center of gravity shifted.
Today, price is discovered through centralized exchanges and the continuous activity of traders and financial institutions. They absorb risk, provide liquidity, and process global information faster than any single farm can respond to. The farmer remained essential. Their influence over price did not. Coffee is now a $256 billion industry. Farmers capture the smallest share. Retailers capture the largest, nearly 40 percent, because that is where coffee is transformed and sold at scale. This is not incidental. It reflects where pricing power currently resides.
What We Are Building Toward
After talking to other farmers in our region, one pattern became clear. Many of us were selling coffee at different prices, often undervaluing our own production. Not because of a lack of effort. Because of a lack of shared visibility.
Our motto this year is data.
By measuring yield properly, aligning on quality across farms, and tracking regional output, we can establish a consistent baseline at origin. One that reflects the true cost of production and what buyers are actually willing to pay. With that foundation, selling coffee forward in a three to six month window becomes possible, introducing predictability on both sides.
The Shift
If a different model is going to emerge, it will not begin on an exchange. It will begin at origin. Through small, deliberate steps, the role of the farmer shifts from responding to price to helping define it. And in doing so, the rest of the market is forced to reconsider where value truly begins, and whether it is willing to follow.
One bag at a time.